by Parker Eaves
No. 13 Kansas State will open up conference play on the road for the fifth time in six years under Chris Klieman late Saturday night when they travel to Provo, Utah to face BYU.
Klieman has a record of 3-2 in conference openers with two wins at Oklahoma, two losses at Oklahoma State a win over Central Florida at home last season.
The Cougars went undefeated in non-conference play against Southern Illinois, SMU, and Wyoming. They defeated SMU on the road 18-15 and Wyoming in Laramie 34-14. K-State and BYU have faced each other eight times with each team winning four. The last meeting was in the 1997 Cotton Bowl where BYU won 19-15, the other seven meetings occurred between 1957 and 1977 where the home team won each meeting.
The game will be kicking off at 9:30 p.m. central time and since 2022, BYU has been 2-1 in night games at home against Power 4 teams with one-score wins against Baylor and Cincinnati and a 32-point loss to Iowa State. This is the first time K-State is playing in Provo since 1977.
Can the offense start fast?
K-State’s offense has been one of the best second-half teams in the country but has struggled in first halves.
In the first half of games, K-State is +11 in scoring margin and +55 in the second half. In the first half of games, K-State averages 1.93 points per drive and has 27 points on 14 drives. In the second half of games, they average 4.25 points per drive and 51 points on 12 drives. They average almost three more yards per play in the second half and the success rate is 5% better.
The offense getting off to a fast start on the road is key to taking the crowd out of the game and BYU has one of the better home atmospheres in the Big 12.
BYU’s defense overall has been good but an area of weakness is the run game. BYU ranks 83rd nationally with +0.01 EPA per rush allowed and K-State ranks 10th nationally with +0.25 EPA per rush per GameOnPaper.com. DJ Giddens is one of the best backs in the Big 12 averaging 6.5 yards per rush and is fourth among Big 12 running backs in total rushing yards. Dylan Edwards is one of the more explosive running backs in the conference, ranking first with 7.47 yards after contact per carry and first with a 393.0 elusive rating per PFF, a stat that measures the success and impact of a runner with the ball independent of the blocking.
The running game will need to carry the K-State offense against a below-average BYU run defense and use the play-action passing game to create explosive plays. Avery Johnson is at his best when operating out-of-play action, he is 20-for-32 for 254 yards, 62.5 completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 126.8 NFL Passer Rating.
Will the defense be able to create havoc?
The defense last week created at least 20 pressures for the third week in a row, something they achieved three times all of last season, per PFF.
Defensive ends Brendan Mott and Tobi Osunsanmi rank top ten among Big 12 defensive ends in total pressures and pressure rate, the only two teammates to do so. The K-State defense has been able to create turnovers in the past two games with two forced against Tulane and the one interception against Arizona. BYU’s quarterback Jake Retzlaff is prone to turning the ball over with six interceptions, nine fumbles, and four fumbles lost across seven games the past two seasons. His 10 turnovers in the past two seasons are the most among FBS quarterbacks in that span.
BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts is one of the best in the Big 12 with 263 receiving yards this season and averaging 17.5 yards per catch. Jacob Parrish and Keenan Garber are two of the best zone cover cornerbacks in the Big 12 with Parrish ranking eighth among Big 12 cornerbacks in PFF zone coverage grade and Keenan Garber ranking third among Big 12 cornerbacks in NFL Passer Rating when targeted in zone coverage.
Both Garber and Parrish have had their struggles in man coverage but held up quite well versus Tetairoa McMillan last week. The K-State linebackers have been the best position group on defense and they will need another good game in Provo for K-State to get the win. Austin Romaine ranks as the eighth-best FBS linebacker per PFF and Austin Moore and Desmond Purnell rank as top-20 Big 12 linebackers per PFF.
BYU is one of the worst at converting on third downs, ranking 117th with a 28.2% third-down conversion rate. However, BYU has attempted the second most fourth-downs and has converted eight out of ten times. Getting multiple fourth-down stops will be key for K-State and they rank 33rd nationally allowing a 33.33% fourth-down conversion rate.
