It’s the dawn of a new day and a new era in the Big 12. For the first time since 2012, there are new members in the league as BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston join the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma fired realignment back up two summers ago.
While the Big 12 will change again in one year when Texas and Oklahoma finally leave for the SEC, this is still an exciting time for the league and the new teams that leave behind the American Athletic Conference or Independent ball to join a “Power 5” conference.
So, welcome to the four new schools and their fans who are excited to step up a level of college athletics. Unfortunately, you should probably buckle up for a bumpy ride before you settle in.
I hate to rain on the parade of four fan bases and schools that helped save the conference that I love unconditionally and have all of my favorite sports memories from, but I am a realist and want to prepare everybody for what the future might look like for the four new schools.
TCU basketball spent their first four seasons in the Big 12 trying to adjust to the move up from the Mountain West, losing at least 14 games in conference play each season. They didn’t play in the NCAA Tournament until their sixth season in the league but still haven’t finished with a record above .500 in Big 12 play.
West Virginia football won at least nine games in seven straight seasons before joining the Big 12, and while Geno Smith made a splash in the league early, the Mountaineers got wake-up calls in back-to-back weeks from Texas Tech and K-State when they were outscored 104-28 after starting the season 5-0 and moving to No. 5 in the country. West Virginia would finish the year 7-6 and have only reached nine wins once since joining the league.
Now, I know what you’re thinking, “West Virginia basketball was pretty good when they joined the conference!” True, they had played in five straight NCAA Tournaments leading up to joining the Big 12, but in their first two seasons in the league, they missed the NCAA Tournament and were 30-35 overall in those two years.
“But TCU football won the Big 12 as soon as they joined the league!” Sort of, they won the league in their third season in the Big 12, but after four straight seasons winning 11 games or more and playing in a Fiesta and Rose Bowl, the Frogs were 11-14 in their first two seasons in the Big 12 and finished below .500 in conference play for those two seasons. They adjusted, but it took a few years.
And so I set the stage for the four newcomers, who come in bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, ready to experience Power 5 football and basketball. UCF and Cincinnati have been consistent players in college football despite being in the Group of 5, but they haven’t had to face Oklahoma, K-State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas in the same season.
In basketball, BYU has dealt with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s but now get ready for Kansas, Houston, Baylor, Texas, K-State and your pick of whatever team in the league is up next on the schedule.
Houston basketball won’t be as dominant, but they will be at the top of the league with Kansas and Baylor this upcoming season. UCF football is in a good spot with a talent-rich state, strong performance over the last decade, and a coach that has taken a team to a national championship. So it isn’t all rainclouds for the newcomers in the Big 12.
But things will be dark for most of the basketball teams in the league. Mark Pope has missed the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons at BYU out of the WCC, and they are nowhere close to ready for the beast that the Big 12 will be. Wes Miller has had some struggles in his first two seasons at Cincinnati in a weak AAC, making his first NCAA Tournament with the Bearcats soon enough to keep the job will be tough in the Big 12. As for Johnny Dawkins at UCF, at least he already owns a house and lives in the retirement state.
I really do believe that all four teams are great new additions to help the Big 12 move forward, but it could be a rocky start with coaching turnover, philosophical readjustments, and growing pains. TCU and West Virginia came through on the other side, and are better for it.
