The first top-20 matchup at Bill Snyder Family since 2014 is on tap for this Friday when No. 20 Arizona comes to town to take on No. 14 Kansas State.
Both teams have faced an FCS team and a Group of 5 team with and have come away 2-0, although not entirely convincingly. Arizona beat New Mexico in Week 1 61-39, but only led 27-24 at halftime, and beat Northern Arizona 22-10 after trailing 10-6 at halftime.
Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan is one of the best receivers in college football with 304 receiving yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. Childhood friend Noah Fifita is also one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 with 595 passing yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 114.3 NFL Passer Rating. Fifita and McMillan are the best QB/WR duo in the Big 12 and will be a tough test for K-State’s secondary.
Can the offense get off to a fast start?
K-State’s offense has gotten off to a slow start in the first half, only scoring 10 points in both games. In the second half, K-State is averaging 20.5 points and getting into much more of a rhythm. So far this season, 45% of K-State’s drives in the first half have ended in three-and-outs, but in the second half, that decreases to 18%.
To make it easier on the team as a whole, K-State needs to come out with a fast start against a defense that ranks last in sack percentage per TeamRankings.com. In terms of EPA (expected points added), a metric that measures how well a team performs compared to their expectation on a play-by-play basis, Arizona ranks 67th nationally against the pass, 59th against the run, 71st on early downs, and 80th in success rate per GameOnPaper.com.
In the second half this year, Avery Johnson is 12-of-15 for 190 yards 12.7 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. K-State is averaging 1.8 points per drive in the first half and 4.3 points per drive in the second half. Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense is averaging 2.83 points per drive in the first half and 1.3 points per drive in the second half.
Johnson has been at his best when operating out-of-play action, going 14-of-22 for 192 yards, 8.7 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 121.8 NFL passer rating per Pro Football Focus. Incorporating more play-action and allowing Johnson to throw while on the run should yield more positive results for the passing offense that has had mixed results.
The rushing offense for K-State has been good, rushing for over 200 yards and averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry in the first two games. Arizona’s run defense is average, allowing 200 yards and 5.5 yards per carry against New Mexico, but the red and blue Wildcats held Northern Arizona under 100 yards and less than 3.0 yards per carry.
Will the defense be able to stop Tetairoa McMillan?
The secondary for K-State struggled last week against Tulane giving up at least five receptions of 25 yards with multiple coverage busts. The miscommunication by the defense was concerning, especially considering they are facing one of the best QB/WR combos in the country this week.
McMillan is what makes the Arizona offense go. He had over 300 yards receiving against New Mexico where they scored 61 points and against Northern Arizona, he struggled with 11 receiving yards and Arizona’s offense had 22 points.
Northern Arizona played tight man coverage on McMillan with a safety bracketed at all times, forcing Fifita to throw to other receivers. The defensive game plan worked and the offense struggled. Arizona averaged 5.00 points per drive against New Mexico and 1.8 points per drive against Northern Arizona.
K-State’s strength on defense has been their run defense, ranking 23rd nationally in EPA per rush, 31st in success rate, and averaging 2.5 yards per rush allowed which is 25th nationally. The passing defense ranks 101st nationally in EPA per pass, 50th in success rate, and 9.6 yards per pass which is seventh worst among FBS teams.
From re-watching the game vs Tulane, K-State’s defensive backs need to trust their eyes more and go make the play. There were many times when the defender read the coverage correctly but didn’t trust their eyes and hesitated. The passing numbers may look bad, but most of that stems from just a couple of mistakes. If K-State can get those cleaned up, it will make a big difference because the run defense has been good.
Arizona’s pass offense is one of the best in the Big 12 and improving upon the mistakes from last week is critical to winning a non-Saturday matchup for the first time since beating West Virginia in 2014.
